Publication record
- Version
- 1.0
- Valuation date
- 9 July 2026
- Information through
- 11 July 2026
- First published
- 13 July 2026
Independent Investment Research / Version 1.0
MSTR 2026-2030:
Beyond the Bitcoin Proxy
An Independent Analysis of Strategy Inc.'s Capital Structure and Common Equity
Separating the Bitcoin thesis from security selection. Common equity is evaluated as a path-dependent residual claim after debt, preferred securities, reserve policy, financing costs, and dilution.
Current thesis decision
Monitoring position only
0%-1% NAV No leverage
Normal sizing is deferred until valuation and operating evidence improve together.
Hard cap3%
01 / Valuation record
Historical valuation snapshot
Historical valuation snapshot from the published Version 1.0 report. Not live market data.
02 / Central argument
The thesis in one view
The asset thesis and the security-selection decision are related, but they are not interchangeable.
MSTR is not Bitcoin multiplied by a fixed leverage factor. It is a changing residual claim on a capital-allocation platform.
Bitcoin thesis≠MSTR security
03 / Claims ahead of common
Capital structure overview
The common share sits behind a substantial senior layer and an annualized modeled cash burden.
04 / Evidence gates
Decision requires confirmation
Price alone is insufficient. Every starter condition must pass.
Monitoring only. No leverage.
At or below $85, all gates pass.
After operating and financing confirmation.
Hard cap in every scenario.
05 / Scenario matrix
Underwriting bands, not forecasts
A favorable Bitcoin endpoint does not guarantee a favorable MSTR outcome when financing or dilution is adverse.
06 / Model evidence
The distribution is deeply asymmetric.
The mean is dominated by the right tail. The median is the more representative central outcome under the published assumptions.
Median terminal MSTR$40.72
Mean terminal MSTR$443.72
20,000 pathsSeeded conditional experiment
07 / Principal risks
What can destroy the residual
The largest risks arise when the asset path, funding path, and dilution path deteriorate together.
08 / Decision rules
What would change the view
Evidence that supports sizing
Invalidation and reduction triggers
09 / Research record
Decision timeline
The framework advances when evidence changes, not merely because the market price moves.
10 / Research discipline
Methodology and limitations
A transparent stress framework for sizing and comparison, not a precise forecast of legal or market outcomes.
11 / Publication and documents
Read the complete research
The full reports contain the equations, source notes, replication appendix, and granular references.